8 Billions. Gosh. I’ve lost. Bye Bye the foreseen HP/BEA or SAP/BEA deal..
So the bad news is: I’ve lost this bet. The good news is that now Oracle has a real application server. 
.
Oh. Yes. Let me count. 1 database, 2 Applications Servers, 2 (good) BPM solutions, 3 Portals suites, 2 ESB, 2 Collaboration suite, 2 Services Registry, 2 IDE… Wow, some cleaning ahead guys….
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Loading ...In a previous post I’ve bet on HP buying BEA. After thinking SAP would. Oracle has just announced the acquisition of BEA. Am I going to loose another bet?
Not sure. The battle is not over. SAP Will have to move. If not, Oracle closes the door for a lot of Netveawer development. And HP if they want to take the last chance they have to come back in the Enterprise Software market
Moreover, not sure Oracle is not trying to buy BEA just to accelerate move from other. Think about the rationales behind Oracle announce. Of course with the acquisition of BEA, Oracle would have a real application server 
…but:
- they will have to kill one of the BPM tool (probably ALUI BPM Manager since Oracle Process Manager has some market share and is quite good).
- They have 3 portals in the portfolio: Oracle Portal + BEA Web Portal + BEA ALUI. Ok. The first one is a pure failure, the second one was a planned dead in BEA’s roadmap…
- In the SOA fields, they have 2 ESB, 2 Services Registry, etc…
4 Billions euros spent and a lot of cleaning to do…. I am really do not buying it….
Let’s see in the coming days. I still bet on HP.
BTW, once BEA is acquired, and after the BO/SAP deal…. Who’s left? What is the next bet we can do?
Cognos? For sure. Informatica? Maybe. Day.com? Too late. Red Hat? No, they still have too much momentum and good visibility. Montavista? Maybe. Open source pure players like MySQL or Alfresco? Too early.
Information Access vendors? Hmm… Not bad. Who will be the first? I think they will be public and in the top of the magic quadrant. Autonomy? Fast Search & Transfer? What do you think?
Sphere: Related Content (No Ratings Yet) Loading ...Rumors have been circulating since 2002 that HP would buy BEA. Since I like risks, I’ve bet that SAP would buy BEA by 2005. I was wrong. SAP did not bought them. Not sure they need BEA anymore. But HP does. BEA market capitalization is ~5 Billions US dollars. HP is flying at ~120B US$. With the premium, that’s a 5% dilution at max. BEA has great products HP do not have: Portal, ESB, BPM, Web 2.0 server side solutions. So I was wrong. HP will buy BEA by the end of 2007. New bet. 2 beers on it.
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